domingo, 9 de marzo de 2014

Europe may experience higher warming than global average with more water in Central and Northern and less in Southern Europe

The majority of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average if surface temperatures rise to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, according to a new study published on 7th March..
Under such a scenario, temperatures greater than the 2 °C global average will be experienced in Northern and Eastern Europe in winter and Southern Europe in summer; however, North-Western Europe—specifically the UK—will experience a lower relative warming.
The study, which has been published today, 7 March, in IOP Publishing's journal Environmental Research Letters, also shows that in the summer, daily maximum temperatures could increase by 3𔃂 °C over South-Eastern Europe and the Iberian Peninsula and rise well above 40 °C in regions that already experience some of the highest temperatures in Europe, such as Spain, Portugal and France. Such higher temperatures will increase evaporation and drought.
In the winter, the maximum daily temperatures could increase by more than 6 °C across Scandinavia and Russia.
Lead author of the research Robert Vautard, from Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (CEA/CNRS/UVSQ), said: "The 2 °C warming target has mainly been decided among nations as a limit not to exceed in order to avoid possibly dangerous climate change. However, the consequences of such a warming, at the scale of a continent like Europe, have not yet been quantified.
"We find that, even for such an ambitious target as 2 °C, changes in European climate are significant and will lead to significant impacts."
The study also shows that there will be a robust increase in precipitation( 10% )over Central and Northern Europe in the winter and Northern Europe in the summer, and that most of the continent will experience an increase in instances of extreme precipitation, increasing the flood risks which are already having significant economic consequences.
Southern Europe is an exception, and will experience a general decline in mean precipitation (10%).
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Journal Reference:
  1. Robert Vautard, Andreas Gobiet, Stefan Sobolowski, Erik Kjellström, Annemiek Stegehuis, Paul Watkiss, Thomas Mendlik, Oskar Landgren, Grigory Nikulin, Claas Teichmann, Daniela Jacob. The European climate under a 2 °C global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 2014; 9 (3): 034006 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006

domingo, 2 de marzo de 2014

Frequency of severe flooding across Europe 'to double by 2050´: Pan-European fund solidarity fund will be needed.

The frequency of severe flooding across Europe is set to double by 2050 and over the same period there could be a nearly fivefold increase in the annual economic losses resulting from floods, a study has found.
Climate change and an increase in rainfall will account for about a third of the losses by mid-century, with the rest of the increase being due to more properties and infrastructure falling within flood risk areas, scientists said.
An analysis of how rainfall patterns are likely to change over the coming decades, and how river levels are set to breach existing flood defences, has found that flooding will increasingly become a pan-European problem that does not respect territorial or national borders, the researchers said.
If the rivers are flooding in Central Europe, they are likely to also be flooding Eastern European regions. There is a need to be prepared for larger stress in risk-financing mechanisms, such as the pan-European solidarity fund, a financial tool for financing disaster recovery in the European Union.
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